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Do you think Dragon Quest XII will be a timed exclusive?


Do you think Dragon Quest XII will be a timed exclusive?  

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I certainly believe there's a possibility for Dragon Quest XII to be a timed exclusive for these reasons.

Dragon Quest VIII was exclusive to the PlayStation 2 for a little over 9 years in Japan and North America and a little over 8 years for Europe and Oceania before Square Enix announced that Dragon Quest VIII was going to be ported to Android and iOS and before Square Enix announced that Dragon Quest VIII was coming to Nintendo 3DS. I don't believe that Sony paid for Dragon Quest VIII to be exclusive to the PlayStation 2. But I've seen Sony become really aggressive when it comes to timed exclusives. Final Fantasy VII Remake being exclusive to the PlayStation 4 until 2021 is one example. Another example is Project Athia being a timed exclusive for the PlayStation 5, but I don't think Square Enix has said when Project Athia would no longer be exclusive to the PlayStation 5. I can see Sony trying to get Dragon Quest XII to come to the PlayStation 5 as a timed exclusive, going by how successful Dragon Quest VIII was, outside of Japan.

Of course, there's a possibility of Nintendo trying to get timed exclusivity for Dragon Quest XII as well. The version of Dragon Quest VIII with the most content has currently been exclusive to the Nintendo 3DS for over 5 years in Japan and over 3 years outside of Japan. Dragon Quest IX has currently been exclusive to the Nintendo DS for over 11 years in Japan and over 10 years outside of Japan. And Dragon Quest XI S will have been exclusive to the Nintendo Switch for 14 months and 1 week until Dragon Quest XI S is released on 4 December 2020 for Xbox One, Xbox Game Pass, PlayStation 4, and Steam. When I was watching the Dragon Quest XI S trailer during the Nintendo Direct on 13 February 2019, I remember the announcer saying at the end that Dragon Quest XI S was "launching exclusively on Nintendo Switch this fall", which suggests that Nintendo paid for Dragon Quest XI S to come to the Nintendo Switch as a timed exclusive.

And as for the Xbox Series X, I think the chance of Microsoft trying to get timed exclusivity for Dragon Quest XII is low, but still possible. Phil Spencer has recently talked about the Xbox team in Japan trying to build a relationship with Japanese developers, as well as trying to convince Japanese developers that the Xbox Series X and the Xbox Game Pass are the platforms of choice for releasing games. And Microsoft was the first to announce that Dragon Quest XI S is coming to the Xbox One and the Xbox Game Pass on 4 December 2020 to the surprise of many people, including myself, before it was announced Dragon Quest XI S is also coming to the PlayStation 4 and Steam. So I don't think anyone can count out Microsoft.

I think Dragon Quest XII is mostly likely going to be released on next generation consoles, considering Yuji Horii mentioned that Dragon Quest XII development began in 2019, presumably after Dragon Quest XI S went gold, which is why I've mentioned the PlayStation 5, the "Nintendo Switch 2", and the Xbox Series X in the poll options. Right now, I don't know how to answer the poll question myself since in my opinion, all the poll options are possible. Personally, I'd like Dragon Quest XII to be released for all consoles at the same time, but I don't know if that's realistic. I'd love to hear you discuss your opinions and thoughts.

 

Edited by Dakhil
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Same, I hoped it will be released on all consoles at the same time, as to avoid having to buy a "Definitive Edition" later. Or a Final Mix, Royal, Turbo, Emerald (etc) version later on. 

Well anyway, I know I won't play it on its release day anyway, since I'll have many other games to beat first, so I'll have the time to see where it's launched and if it'll have more than one edition too. I Stull haven't played XI, which is why I'm glad my first play through will be on PS4 with the Definitive Edition hehe. 

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That's some solid reasoning, but I think we'll see a similar scenario to DQ11, in that the Switch version will have a slightly different graphical system.  Not for the Switch Pro/Switch 2, but for the normal Switch, and the PS5, XBS1, and PC/Steam will see the same version.  I can see slightly different content between them as well.

When Switch Pro/Switch 2 releases, it will get a port of the PS5 version with some new content, assuming the Switch Pro numbers hit a certain level and certain amount of consistent popularity to make it worth SE's time.

That or if it's a Switch temporary exclusive, the release date would be either before or immediately following the Switch Pro, so I do not see that as a feasible approach for a system exclusive, no matter how much money Nintendo is willing to pony up for it.  The risk to reward is too low, unless Nintendo can prove demand is very high like...now, literally at this early stage, as they would have to develop for a non-existent system at this point, meaning they would have to know the specs and have to have early access to dev kits.

So if it's temporary, it will be Switch normal, as the release date is going to be 2, maybe 3 years from now, especially if they use Unreal Engine.  Then we'd see an updated version with higher visuals for PS5/XB4/PC.  Then that will be ported to Switch Pro, and in that scenario, the PS5/XB4/PC will have added unique content, and the Switch Pro will be a pure port.  Or maybe...MAYBE they decide to create a DLC update patch in a reasonable price range for the Switch, complete with Switch Pro texture updates.

===

Most likely scenario I see is the first, in the sense we'll see Switch -> 3DS, and PS5/XB4/PC -> PS4 , ala DQ12 -> DQ11 development.  I think this the most likely, as it's actually cheaper overall, and would give the Switch a certain advantage of uniqueness, which if released early on, might work out better in the West.  I think in this case, they would see the logic in releasing all versions.

Edited by ignasia
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Are we assuming that this situation is a Japan only release at first, and then have a release outside of Japan a  year later? Or a worldwide release? Or are we only factoring the overseas release?

Considering the history of DQ, I think it is fair to assume that XII will be a Japan only title for a year or two. If that is the case, I am confident that the game will be a PS5 exclusive until it gets localized. Japan likes to have their games exclusive to one platform until it gets pushed overseas.

They could pull a IX on us and make it a Switch exclusive. I think that is very probable. Especially since Nintendo seems to be playing really nice with Square right now.

As of all consoles, I would say that is pretty much out of the question. At least until we get a Definitive Turbo S Special edition.

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From an install base, I'm going to assume DQXII will start on Switch. How many other times have they gone with systems at the end of their lifetime with huge install bases?

DQVI was near the end of SNES
DQVII was near the end of PS1
DQXI near the end of 3DS

I'd bet on Switch only at first. Maybe it'll have a PS4 version that could be played on PS5 too (kinda how Persona 5 had a PS3 version in Japan).

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1 hour ago, Plattym3 said:

From an install base, I'm going to assume DQXII will start on Switch. How many other times have they gone with systems at the end of their lifetime with huge install bases?

DQVI was near the end of SNES
DQVII was near the end of PS1
DQXI near the end of 3DS

I'd bet on Switch only at first. Maybe it'll have a PS4 version that could be played on PS5 too (kinda how Persona 5 had a PS3 version in Japan).

Yeah, DQ games tend to be on what the current biggest install base is, be it handheld or home console. It’s why DQ9 was on the DS after all. We could see the game on two consoles at launch, but I’d imagine the Switch will be one of them depending on when the game comes out.

(Also, the PS3 version of Persona 5 came out over here in the States too, Platty. Back when I released I saw physical copies for sale at places like Wal-Mart.)

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21 hours ago, Twinkie said:

Considering the history of DQ, I think it is fair to assume that XII will be a Japan only title for a year or two. If that is the case, I am confident that the game will be a PS5 exclusive until it gets localized. Japan likes to have their games exclusive to one platform until it gets pushed overseas.
 

Really?  You think it's still that bad?

NES era (only period with a 2~3 year gap):

  1. DQ1 May 1986 -> August 1989 (so 3y 3m)
  2. DQ2 January 1987 -> September 1990 (so 3y 8m, +5m , 1y 1m from DQ1 US)
  3. DQ3 February 1988 -> March 1992 (so 4y 1m, +5m , 1y 6m from DQ2 US)
  4. DQ4 February 1990 -> October 1992 (so 2y 1m, -2y , 7m from DQ3 US)

GBC + PSX era

  1. DQM1 September 1998 -> January 2000 (so 1y 4m)
  2. DQ1+2 September 1999 -> September 2000 (so 1y, -4m , 8m from DQM1 US)
  3. DQT:TLH September 1999 -> November 2000 (so 1y 2m, +2m , 2m from DQ1+2 US)
  4. DQ3 September 2000 -> July 2001 (so 9m, -5m , 7m from DQTorneko US)
  5. DQM2 March 2001 -> September 2001 (so 6m, -3m , 2m from DQ3 US)
  6. DQ7 August 2000 -> October 2001 (so 1y 2m, +8m , 1m from DQM2 US , -11m vs DQ4 NES, the last "current/new" mainline release)

PS2 + DS + Wii era

  1. DQ8 November 2004 -> November 2005 (so 1y, -2m vs DQ7 PSX, the last "new" mainline release)
  2. DQRS December 2005 -> September 2006 ...9m
  3. DQM:J December 2006 -> November 2007 ...11m
  4. DQS July 2007 -> February 2008 ...7m
  5. DQ4 November 2007 -> September 2008 ...10m
  6. DQ5 July 2008 -> February 2009 ...7m
  7. DQ9 July 2009 -> July 2010 ...1y
  8. DQ6 January 2010 -> February 2011 ...1y 1m
  9. DQM:J2 April 2010 -> September 2011 ...1y 5m (this can be classified as a fluke due to potential internal disputes between Nintendo and SE)

Mobile releases

  1. DQ Wars June 2009 -> September 2009 ...3m
  2. DQ8 December 2013 -> May 2014 ...5m
  3. DQ4 April 2014 -> August 2014 ...4m
  4. DQ1 November 2013 -> September 2014 ...10m
  5. DQ2 June 2014 -> October 2014 ...4m
  6. DQ3 September 2014 -> December 2014 ...3m
  7. DQ5 December 2014 -> January 2015 ...1m
  8. DQ6 June 2015 -> June 2015 ...14 days

3DS + PS4 + Switch era

  1. DQH February 2015 -> October 2015 ...8m
  2. DQ7 February 2013 -> September 2016 ...3y 7m (this is an exception to the new rule)
  3. DQ8 August 2015 -> January 2017 ...1y 5m
  4. DQH2 May 2016 -> April 2017 ...11m
  5. DQB PS4 January 2016 -> October 2016 ...9m
  6. DQB Switch February 2017 WW ...March 2017 Japan (we had this game a month PRIOR to Japan) ... -1m
  7. DQ11 PS4 July 2017 -> September 2018 ...1y 2m
  8. DQB2 December 2018 -> July 2019 ...7m
  9. DQ11 Switch September 2019 (WW, same date as Japan) ...+/- 0m, 0w, 0d, 0h, 0s

====

Seems to me it will either be about 1y, maybe a month or two over, or it will be WAY under that, as they start localization efforts alongside development (which is very possible).  DQ7 3DS is a clear exception, and with obvious reasons.  DQ8 3DS is also a slight exception, also for obvious reasons.  They weren't planned for release at some point during development, and for some reason SE seems frightened about releasing DQ games on Nintendo handheld consoles (sees them as risky, without taking into account reasons and bad judgment/handling on their part).

So take some heart, things aren't nearly as bad as they use to be in the NES era, where it took Enix a long time to recognize potential in the West, and all due to Nintendo's handiwork and help.

Edited by ignasia
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13 hours ago, ignasia said:

Really?  You think it's still that bad?

NES era (only period with a 2~3 year gap):

  1. DQ1 May 1986 -> August 1989 (so 3y 3m)
  2. DQ2 January 1987 -> September 1990 (so 3y 8m, +5m , 1y 1m from DQ1 US)
  3. DQ3 February 1988 -> March 1992 (so 4y 1m, +5m , 1y 6m from DQ2 US)
  4. DQ4 February 1990 -> October 1992 (so 2y 1m, -2y , 7m from DQ3 US)

GBC + PSX era

  1. DQM1 September 1998 -> January 2000 (so 1y 4m)
  2. DQ1+2 September 1999 -> September 2000 (so 1y, -4m , 8m from DQM1 US)
  3. DQT:TLH September 1999 -> November 2000 (so 1y 2m, +2m , 2m from DQ1+2 US)
  4. DQ3 September 2000 -> July 2001 (so 9m, -5m , 7m from DQTorneko US)
  5. DQM2 March 2001 -> September 2001 (so 6m, -3m , 2m from DQ3 US)
  6. DQ7 August 2000 -> October 2001 (so 1y 2m, +8m , 1m from DQM2 US , -11m vs DQ4 NES, the last "current/new" mainline release)

PS2 + DS + Wii era

  1. DQ8 November 2004 -> November 2005 (so 1y, -2m vs DQ7 PSX, the last "new" mainline release)
  2. DQRS December 2005 -> September 2006 ...9m
  3. DQM:J December 2006 -> November 2007 ...11m
  4. DQS July 2007 -> February 2008 ...7m
  5. DQ4 November 2007 -> September 2008 ...10m
  6. DQ5 July 2008 -> February 2009 ...7m
  7. DQ9 July 2009 -> July 2010 ...1y
  8. DQ6 January 2010 -> February 2011 ...1y 1m
  9. DQM:J2 April 2010 -> September 2011 ...1y 5m (this can be classified as a fluke due to potential internal disputes between Nintendo and SE)

Mobile releases

  1. DQ Wars June 2009 -> September 2009 ...3m
  2. DQ8 December 2013 -> May 2014 ...5m
  3. DQ4 April 2014 -> August 2014 ...4m
  4. DQ1 November 2013 -> September 2014 ...10m
  5. DQ2 June 2014 -> October 2014 ...4m
  6. DQ3 September 2014 -> December 2014 ...3m
  7. DQ5 December 2014 -> January 2015 ...1m
  8. DQ6 June 2015 -> June 2015 ...14 days

3DS + PS4 + Switch era

  1. DQH February 2015 -> October 2015 ...8m
  2. DQ7 February 2013 -> September 2016 ...3y 7m (this is an exception to the new rule)
  3. DQ8 August 2015 -> January 2017 ...1y 5m
  4. DQH2 May 2016 -> April 2017 ...11m
  5. DQB PS4 January 2016 -> October 2016 ...9m
  6. DQB Switch February 2017 WW ...March 2017 Japan (we had this game a month PRIOR to Japan) ... -1m
  7. DQ11 PS4 July 2017 -> September 2018 ...1y 2m
  8. DQB2 December 2018 -> July 2019 ...7m
  9. DQ11 Switch September 2019 (WW, same date as Japan) ...+/- 0m, 0w, 0d, 0h, 0s

====

Seems to me it will either be about 1y, maybe a month or two over, or it will be WAY under that, as they start localization efforts alongside development (which is very possible).  DQ7 3DS is a clear exception, and with obvious reasons.  DQ8 3DS is also a slight exception, also for obvious reasons.  They weren't planned for release at some point during development, and for some reason SE seems frightened about releasing DQ games on Nintendo handheld consoles (sees them as risky, without taking into account reasons and bad judgment/handling on their part).

So take some heart, things aren't nearly as bad as they use to be in the NES era, where it took Enix a long time to recognize potential in the West, and all due to Nintendo's handiwork and help.

I don't even think a two year wait is even "bad". I am very patient when it comes to releases.

I said 1 or 2 years. As in, I expect it to be released between 1 to 2 years. 12 to 24 months.

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At this point, I'm sure they will want to make it at least on both Switch 2 and PS5. But then again, Nintendo has no reason to make new hardware anytime soon. I think Switch is at the middle point of its cycle and we have at least 2 years until the next Nintendo console. 3DS was still getting big games back in 2018. What I see happening, though, is Nintendo might make Switch Pro. New 3DS had a good amount of exclusive titles, so who knows... I just don't think Nintendo would jump on the next-gen train right now but they can't just be underpowered when all of the PS5/Xbox games will get more technically advanced, it would destroy the third-party presence on Switch.

 

That said, DQ XII is still many years away, I'm sure. We have Dai game which is set for 2021? They're making three versions of it, so that's a lot of work. Then there's the work with DQ XI Definitive ports, the usual work on DQ X, then they're probably working on Monsters and maybe Heroes III? Omega Force always tries to have some kind of collaboration title in development and Heroes III would make perfect sense.

 

By the time they'll have enough time to work on XII, Nintendo will either have Switch Pro, either start thinking about Switch 2. It's too early now.

Edited by ShonenKokoro
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18 minutes ago, ShonenKokoro said:

At this point, I'm sure they will want to make it at least on both Switch 2 and PS5. But then again, Nintendo has no reason to make new hardware anytime soon. I think Switch is at the middle point of its cycle and we have at least 2 years until the next Nintendo console. 3DS was still getting big games back in 2018. What I see happening, though, is Nintendo might make Switch Pro. New 3DS had a good amount of exclusive titles, so who knows... I just don't think Nintendo would jump on the next-gen train right now but they can't just be underpowered when all of the PS5/Xbox games will get more technically advanced, it would destroy the third-party presence on Switch.

 

That said, DQ XII is still many years away, I'm sure. We have Dai game which is set for 2021? They're making three versions of it, so that's a lot of work. Then there's the work with DQ XI Definitive ports, the usual work on DQ X, then they're probably working on Monsters and maybe Heroes III? Omega Force always tries to have some kind of collaboration title in development and Heroes III would make perfect sense.

 

By the time they'll have enough time to work on XII, Nintendo will either have Switch Pro, either start thinking about Switch 2. It's too early now.

Ugh.

 

I hate to say it, but I would probably buy the Switch Pro. The Switch has been so damn good to me. 

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8 minutes ago, cprmauldin said:

Ugh.

 

I hate to say it, but I would probably buy the Switch Pro. The Switch has been so damn good to me. 

I'm sure it would be worth it! :)

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