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Dragon Quest XI S Sales Prediction Poll (and Discussion)

How well do you think Dragon Quest XI S will do saleswise?  

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Posted (edited)

Since Dragon Quest XI S will be released worldwide in exactly one month from today, I thought it'd be interesting to ask all of you here at Dragon's Den how well do you think Dragon Quest XI S will do saleswise.

I think Dragon Quest XI S has a real shot in doing very well in the West saleswise. However, I'm not sure how well Dragon Quest XI S can potentially do in Japan saleswise. That's why I'm leaning towards "It'll sell more than the PlayStation 4, Nintendo 3DS, and PC (Steam) versions, but nothing groundbreaking."

With that being said, I'd like to explain why I think Dragon Quest XI S has a real shot on doing well in the West saleswise. (I'd like to warn you of very long posts below.) 

1) Nintendo's big marketing push via Super Smash Bros Ultimate.

There are various video game series, like Fire Emblem and Earthbound (or Mother in Japan), that didn't do well outside of Japan due to being niche. However, with the introduction of various characters from various niche video game series in Super Smash Bros, more people got exposure to those niche video game series and became interested in playing games associated with them. And as a result, those video games began to sell well outside of Japan. Fire Emblem and Earthbound (or Mother in Japan) comes to my mind when I think of niche video game series that benefit from exposure Super Smash Bros. And Dragon Quest XI S is no exception to that, considering that I've seen many people on social media talking about the Hero in Super Smash Bros Ultimate as well as Dragon Quest XI S during E3 2019 and when the Hero was available for download.

2) Piqued interest of playing Dragon Quest XI S from people outside the usual crowd.

I think because of the big marketing push from Nintendo via Super Smash Bros Ultimate, more people who don't usually play Dragon Quest games (hence outside the usual crowd) become interested in playing Dragon Quest XI S. I think one example that comes to my mind is Pokémon fans. I'm pretty sure many people know how many grievances many Pokémon fans have towards Pokémon Sword & Pokémon Shield, such as the removal of the National Pokédex, removal of features from previous Pokémon games (such as Mega Evolutions and Z-Move), and underwhelming graphics. Pokémon fans are actually so angry about how underwhelming the graphics of Pokémon Sword & Pokémon Shield are that a Pokémon fan made a YouTube video comparing the graphics of Pokémon Sword & Pokémon Shield and Dragon Quest XI S, which garnered over 300,000 views.

And there are many Pokémon fans saying that Dragon Quest XI S look better than Pokémon Sword & Pokémon Shield graphically and that they're convinced on buying Dragon Quest XI S. I even remember reading a Pokémon fan's comment about how they're going to skip buying Pokémon Sword & Pokémon Shield and buy Dragon Quest XI S. The fact that many Pokémon fans are talking about buying Dragon Quest XI S is a huge deal, considering how Pokémon games sell very well worldwide, no matter how ridiculous it might sound.

And a poll that Nintendo Life created a couple of days ago that 46% of people who are planning on buying Dragon Quest XI S (as of 27 August 2019) have never played a Dragon Quest game when asked if they have played a mainline Dragon Quest game.

Nintendo Life Poll.png

3) Nintendo and Square Enix releasing a Dragon Quest XI S demo with around 10 hours' worth of content.

I think it's a no brainer on how much of a good idea it is to release a Dragon Quest XI S demo that has around 10 hours' worth of content. I think around 10 hours' worth of content is a good amount of time allocated for the Dragon Quest XI S demo since we all know that Dragon Quest XI S is around 60+ hours. And there are many people who are on the fence on Dragon Quest XI S; and they can try out the Dragon Quest XI S demo to see if they enjoy playing Dragon Quest XI S. And I've seen many people who become convinced on purchasing Dragon Quest XI S after playing the demo since they really enjoy playing Dragon Quest XI S. I've also seen many people on social media posting pictures from the Dragon Quest XI S demo, which would convince more people to try out the Dragon Quest XI S demo, which I think can potentially result in more sales. And I've seen many people on social media commenting on how surprisingly good Dragon Quest XI S looks on the Nintendo Switch screen and on the TV, given the Nintendo Switch's technical limitations, which I think would make more people less hesitant on trying out the Dragon Quest XI S demo and potentially buying Dragon Quest XI S. I really think Nintendo and Square Enix set a precedence on how RPG demos should be with the Dragon Quest XI S demo.

Please do feel free to correct me if you think anything that I've said was erroneous. And please also feel free to discuss your thoughts on how well do you think Dragon Quest XI S will do saleswise!

Edited by Dakhil
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There is no way I can see this version as the best selling game in the series history.  In the US, definitely, in Europe, maybe.  In Japan?  No.

DQ7 was the fastest selling DQ game up front, DQ9 the highest selling.  3.8m in 3 months vs 4.2m in 10 months.  How do we know DQ7 is the fastest selling DQ game early on?  Enix released numbers early, at the end of 2000, indicating their sales in 2000, because they were impressive.  SE waited out nearly a year before releasing numbers for DQ9, though this might also be due to DQ9 projected 5m sales, it does indicate sales were a little slower up front than they wanted, or they would have indicated surpassing DQ7's.

Anyway, that's a hard bar to reach for a system that only has an 8.7m sell-through rate in Japan.

The PS1 vs DS sales around the point their respective games released (PSX is REALLY HARD to work out):

PS1 in FY 2000: 82.28m , PS1 JP sales 2004: 18m (it's hard to gauge, but most of the PSX sales post 2000 came from Europe and other parts of Asia, where the markets finally opened, including SEA and China, but I'd wager 15~16m is a good bet for PS1 sales in Japan in 2000)

So ~15-16m PSX sales in Japan for 3.8m in DQ7 sales, 17+m by the 4.1m number.

DS would be ~30.5m units in Japan for 4.2m in DQ9 sales.  27m units when DQ9 was first released.

------

So the Switch, at the same point, is roughly half the PS1 sales in terms of system units, and will likely see another 300k~1m extra units in Japan alone by September 30th, as sales start to ramp up due to the new Switch units, and in anticipation of the games released later in the year.  They don't quite ramp up there like they do here (ala Christmas season).

-----

Europe's hard number is around 720k for DQ8, though since DQ8, sales have gone down, not up.  Especially in the UK for some reason.
US's hard number is hard to determine.  430k for DQ8 is meaningless, as sales at the end of the 1st month didn't break 80k units in actual sales, and SE's anticipation was so high they only printed 430k for their initial run for the US, and never told us when they sold through.  They've only ever listed the 430k initial print run, and the only print run.  DQ7, on the other hand, broke 177k in the first 2 months, maybe the 1st month, I can't get good data on that now as a lot of archives are gone and not part of Wayback Machine, and google's archive is...I don't know if they even allow general archiving long-term now.

We do know that DQ9 wiped the floor with DQ8 in first month sales in the US.  132k.  We know that DQ11 PS4 went over double the revenue, and by the enthusiasm, it can be suggested as quite a bit more than double...so maybe 230~260% revenue.  The actual sell through rate is harder to determine, as there were several sales for the PS4 physical, digital, and PC release.  I do mean VERY hard to determine.  Sales went as low as 35 from Greenman gaming for the Steam, and 39.99 for the physical copy.  Digital went down to 45 on PSN twice, and there were two 49.99 sales for several days prior to the announcement of double DQ9's sell through rate.  DQ7 wouldn't be counted because it was pre-merger, and Enix cut sales down considerably by forcing a limited print run, probably to avoid complications of sell-through over time and having to buy back, or they couldn't guarantee sales from retailers at high enough rates to warrant extra print runs.  Whatever the case:

132k * 35 = 4.62m * 2 = 9.24m / 60 = 154k as a baseline for the PS4/PC.  However, I think it's safe to use 2.3*, so 4.62m * 2.3 = 10.626m / 60 = 177k

The other thing is we don't know if those numbers were sell-through post release, or included pre-orders.  That's another issue, and in both DQ9 and DQ11's case.  It also doesn't discuss or relate to overall sales, or comparing console sales.  As in was Steam factored in or not?  Nothing in the original tweet absolutely defines this.

There's also the aforementioned issue of multiple sales that DQ9 did not have (it was consistently 34.99).  So sales could be well into the 200k number, and hell, +130% is a fair number, but the value is anywhere between +100% and +200%, but not stated as near 300%, so it couldn't be like +180% or higher, and +170% is pushing it a bit.  +160% is a fair top margin, but since we don't know specifics, it's not worth speculating, only that it's very likely DQ11's first month probably hovered around 200k total units in the US alone.

I think the Switch release can definitely beat 200k in month 1.

We also know that 3 months after international release, DQ11's total numbers suggest DQ11 international sold 700+k in total.  Meaning internationally, it sold about 65% of DQ8's international numbers, as listed 4 years later, and 70% of DQ9's international numbers, as listed 6 months later.

===

DQ11's sales though...yeah, I can see Japan seeing a higher sell through rate than either 1.86 or 1.53m for the 3DS and PS4 respectively.  I can see a potential 2m sell-through rate.

===

So while overall sales, I can see hitting way above DQ9's ceiling, for any one console, no.  For the Switch on its own?  No.  For US sales, I can see Switch selling more than any other DQ release previous.  For Europe?  I can see it doing either on par with DQ8, or maybe just above.  For Japan, I can see it doing better than the 3DS and PS4.

Predictions:

Japan: 1.5~2.5m (just to be on the safe side, but I think it more likely 2~2.5m)
NA: 1+m (800k~1m US alone)
EU: 700~850k (France leading the charge with 40% of total sales)
UK: 75~100k
AU: 50~75k
Asia (not Japan): 35~50k (might actually be a lot lower, but I'll be positive)

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The combination of the game having a demo, the hero being added to Smash Bros Ultimate, and some actual marketing via Nintendo has no doubt helped out Dragon Quest XI S a lot.

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And I bet those rankings are a bit lower than they'd be if the physical version isn't available for preorder all over for $10 less. So, good news!

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12 hours ago, Plattym3 said:

And I bet those rankings are a bit lower than they'd be if the physical version isn't available for preorder all over for $10 less. So, good news!

Pretty much.

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I'm a bit sad for Europe.  Though I wonder how large a market representation Amazon is over there?

I remember not long ago, finding online retailers in Europe was easy.  Now?  It's like pulling teeth, even from DuckDuckGo.  Amazon is the easiest to find.  Took forever to find a link to Scharwz actual site...Lidl (not big in the Videogame retail market though https://www.lidl.de/de/nintendo-spiele/c22041 ).

I can't even find data sites that don't charge for information, on what the largest electronic and/or videogame retailers are in Europe.  Used to be easy to access.  Not these days.  I wonder why?  Maybe due to too much drop shipping, and trying to curtail that market?

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16 hours ago, ignasia said:

I'm a bit sad for Europe. 

Why? We ONLY GOT DQ7 3DS because of the French. Only because of them. Only because THEY wanted it.  THEY'RE THE ONLY REASON

THE 

ONLY

ONE

 

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2 hours ago, Plattym3 said:

Why? We ONLY GOT DQ7 3DS because of the French. Only because of them. Only because THEY wanted it.  THEY'RE THE ONLY REASON

THE 

ONLY

ONE

 

For that reason the one true name of the DQ7 hero has become “FrenchFy.” (Said like “fih,” like the number five).

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3 hours ago, Plattym3 said:

Why? We ONLY GOT DQ7 3DS because of the French. Only because of them. Only because THEY wanted it.  THEY'RE THE ONLY REASON

THE 

ONLY

ONE

 

I don't buy that story for a second, as only one producer mentioned it initially in one interview.  The size of the campaign from the US end was FAR larger than the French side of things.  There were far more people in the petition on this side, more writing campaigns, and more active participants, more participants in the facebook/youtube/twitter/etc. spam campaigns, all going to the same places as well.  Nintendo of America, Nintendo of Europe, Nintendo of Japan, SE's UK branch, SE's US branch, SE's JP branch.

I don't care how many people in SE claim after that point that France is the only country that made a difference, when we did more (we have a larger fanbase as well, and a longer running fanbase).  I couldn't give less of a #$*!.  It doesn't make sense unless they intentionally blocked US letters, or just tossed ours out, while SE's EU branch was open to the DQ fanbase because they're MUCH smaller of a general branch.  So maybe that's true, but if true, that speaks volumes.

The DQX campaign is twice the size here than in France.  The 3DS DQ11 campaign had 2800 sigs vs only about 300 from France.  The other DQ campaigns are similar in number differences, not just for the petitions either, just general participation.  Hell, there were French and Germans joining the US campaigns because there wasn't dick going on in Europe.  So that French letter could well have come from one of US letter bombing campaigns, including one from here.  We don't know.

I'm not sure if this is meant to be comedy, or you're trying to make a point that I should be appreciative of the French for my favourite version of my favourite game.  Yeah, I guess maybe I should be.  I am a little, but I'll be damned if I'm going to sit back and just suck on French cock given how much effort I put into that campaign, and just say...yeah, it was a wash, if it weren't for the French, nothing would have happened, I did nothing that mattered.  #$*! that.  F. U. C. K.  I spent 8 months pushing various campaigns, and various segments of campaigns to push things further because they were half-baked in how they were run.  They still didn't do half the #$*! I told them to, and they agreed needed to be done, but we still got #$*! done.  Still wrote letters, still text bombed SE, etc.

That said, Europe's numbers for DQ sales are going down, not up.  As a fanbase, they're shrinking, not growing.  So yes, I feel bad for Europe.  Nor is France all of Europe.

====

Since the DQ11 campaign, the President of SE's US branch no longer has an open email box.  I wonder why?  Probably due to all the bombardment in the DQ7 and 11 campaigns (10 is too small to make any difference...sorry guys, but it's true).  Even half-assing the 11 3DS campaign, I still managed 2,500 signatures in 2 months.  It stopped growing after I stopped pushing it.

1 hour ago, YangustheLegendaryBandit said:

For that reason the one true name of the DQ7 hero has become “FrenchFy.” (Said like “fih,” like the number five).

No, #$*! that #$*!.

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12 minutes ago, ignasia said:

I don't buy that story for a second, as only one producer mentioned it initially in one interview.  The size of the campaign from the US end was FAR larger than the French side of things.  There were far more people in the petition on this side, more writing campaigns, and more active participants, more participants in the facebook/youtube/twitter/etc. spam campaigns, all going to the same places as well.  Nintendo of America, Nintendo of Europe, Nintendo of Japan, SE's UK branch, SE's US branch, SE's JP branch.

I don't care how many people in SE claim after that point that France is the only country that made a difference, when we did more (we have a larger fanbase as well, and a longer running fanbase).  I couldn't give less of a #$*!.  It doesn't make sense unless they intentionally blocked US letters, or just tossed ours out, while SE's EU branch was open to the DQ fanbase because they're MUCH smaller of a general branch.  So maybe that's true, but if true, that speaks volumes.

The DQX campaign is twice the size here than in France.  The 3DS DQ11 campaign had 2800 sigs vs only about 300 from France.  The other DQ campaigns are similar in number differences, not just for the petitions either, just general participation.  Hell, there were French and Germans joining the US campaigns because there wasn't dick going on in Europe.  So that French letter could well have come from one of US letter bombing campaigns, including one from here.  We don't know.

I'm not sure if this is meant to be comedy, or you're trying to make a point that I should be appreciative of the French for my favourite version of my favourite game.  Yeah, I guess maybe I should be.  I am a little, but I'll be damned if I'm going to sit back and just suck on French cock given how much effort I put into that campaign, and just say...yeah, it was a wash, if it weren't for the French, nothing would have happened, I did nothing that mattered.  #$*! that.  F. U. C. K.  I spent 8 months pushing various campaigns, and various segments of campaigns to push things further because they were half-baked in how they were run.  They still didn't do half the #$*! I told them to, and they agreed needed to be done, but we still got #$*! done.  Still wrote letters, still text bombed SE, etc.

That said, Europe's numbers for DQ sales are going down, not up.  As a fanbase, they're shrinking, not growing.  So yes, I feel bad for Europe.  Nor is France all of Europe.

====

Since the DQ11 campaign, the President of SE's US branch no longer has an open email box.  I wonder why?  Probably due to all the bombardment in the DQ7 and 11 campaigns (10 is too small to make any difference...sorry guys, but it's true).  Even half-assing the 11 3DS campaign, I still managed 2,500 signatures in 2 months.  It stopped growing after I stopped pushing it.

No, #$*! that #$*!.

Sorry, but the one true name has been chosen, and that is what it shall stay. Yuji Horii told me so.

Edited by YangustheLegendaryBandit
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How Austere of you.

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You sound like some kind of crazy old homeless man, or a Hobo, if you will. Now excuse me while I go and play as Link in Smash Ultimate for a bit.

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On 9/15/2019 at 11:27 PM, ignasia said:

I don't buy that story for a second, as only one producer mentioned it initially in one interview.  The size of the campaign from the US end was FAR larger than the French side of things.  There were far more people in the petition on this side, more writing campaigns, and more active participants, more participants in the facebook/youtube/twitter/etc. spam campaigns, all going to the same places as well.  Nintendo of America, Nintendo of Europe, Nintendo of Japan, SE's UK branch, SE's US branch, SE's JP branch.

I don't care how many people in SE claim after that point that France is the only country that made a difference, when we did more (we have a larger fanbase as well, and a longer running fanbase).  I couldn't give less of a #$*!.  It doesn't make sense unless they intentionally blocked US letters, or just tossed ours out, while SE's EU branch was open to the DQ fanbase because they're MUCH smaller of a general branch.  So maybe that's true, but if true, that speaks volumes.

The DQX campaign is twice the size here than in France.  The 3DS DQ11 campaign had 2800 sigs vs only about 300 from France.  The other DQ campaigns are similar in number differences, not just for the petitions either, just general participation.  Hell, there were French and Germans joining the US campaigns because there wasn't dick going on in Europe.  So that French letter could well have come from one of US letter bombing campaigns, including one from here.  We don't know.

I'm not sure if this is meant to be comedy, or you're trying to make a point that I should be appreciative of the French for my favourite version of my favourite game.  Yeah, I guess maybe I should be.  I am a little, but I'll be damned if I'm going to sit back and just suck on French cock given how much effort I put into that campaign, and just say...yeah, it was a wash, if it weren't for the French, nothing would have happened, I did nothing that mattered.  #$*! that.  F. U. C. K.  I spent 8 months pushing various campaigns, and various segments of campaigns to push things further because they were half-baked in how they were run.  They still didn't do half the #$*! I told them to, and they agreed needed to be done, but we still got #$*! done.  Still wrote letters, still text bombed SE, etc.

That said, Europe's numbers for DQ sales are going down, not up.  As a fanbase, they're shrinking, not growing.  So yes, I feel bad for Europe.  Nor is France all of Europe.

====

Since the DQ11 campaign, the President of SE's US branch no longer has an open email box.  I wonder why?  Probably due to all the bombardment in the DQ7 and 11 campaigns (10 is too small to make any difference...sorry guys, but it's true).  Even half-assing the 11 3DS campaign, I still managed 2,500 signatures in 2 months.  It stopped growing after I stopped pushing it.

No, #$*! that #$*!.

My post was 100% comedy, like 95% of the stuff I say here. I'm actually surprised when people take me seriously. Online is not the place for seriousness, I don't come online for seriousness or facts, that's what real life is for.  Online is for entertainment.

Like Squeenix and their outright likes about DQ7 3DS, pure entertainment fiction.

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56 minutes ago, Plattym3 said:

My post was 100% comedy, like 95% of the stuff I say here. I'm actually surprised when people take me seriously. Online is not the place for seriousness, I don't come online for seriousness or facts, that's what real life is for.  Online is for entertainment.

Like Squeenix and their outright likes about DQ7 3DS, pure entertainment fiction.

LOL.  I know, it just gave me a good excuse to rant.

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LOL.  I know, it just gave me a good excuse to rant.
And see, now I don't believe YOU. Like most of us on the Den, since when do you need an excuse to rant?

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1 hour ago, Plattym3 said:

And see, now I don't believe YOU. Like most of us on the Den, since when do you need an excuse to rant? emoji1787.pngemoji1787.pngemoji1787.png

I don't exactly rant very often.  I more often just write really long posts of stuff.

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I don't exactly rant very often.  I more often just write really long posts of stuff.
Ah, So true!

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On 9/21/2019 at 10:41 PM, ignasia said:

I don't exactly rant very often.  I more often just write really long posts of stuff.

THIS, I don't know how you do it? Don't you get tired from writing essays every posts? I literally lose energy after writing massive posts too long overtime lol.

On 9/21/2019 at 8:13 PM, Plattym3 said:

My post was 100% comedy, like 95% of the stuff I say here. I'm actually surprised when people take me seriously. Online is not the place for seriousness, I don't come online for seriousness or facts, that's what real life is for.  Online is for entertainment.

Like Squeenix and their outright likes about DQ7 3DS, pure entertainment fiction.

What an interesting philosophy to live by, haha. Btw super random thing I noticed, I just realized your a mod just now "mind blown."

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I write long ass posts because it's something I developed over time.

Though it probably stems from my personality.  I've always been either super silent or a talker.  Apparently I had a lot to say as a kid, and would always have comments and questions about everything.  Growing up I was called the professor (that was meant to be friendly), and the walking encyclopedia (that was not, but new class I joined in as a first year when pretty much everyone else had known one another for 7+ years).  I would always have my hand raised in class in discussion, and would always engage in roundtables and debate.  I would write stories quite a lot growing up, or come up with story ideas all the time (or art...I used to draw and paint a LOT, though pretty much nil these days).

I guess it's just a natural progression.  Though you'd probably laugh how often I stay silent and for how long.  Not always because I can't think of something to say.  These days it's more because I'm not sure if something should be said or if what I'm going to say is the right thing to say, though I still do draw blanks, usually around certain types of women.  The response has nothing to do with looks, and so far I cannot pin down a personality quirk that triggers it, but it's always the same specific women I go "blaaaa...blue good colour, me dumb now, try make fire, not know how, brain act funny, think stuff difficult...where me mallet, what mallet for..."...well, it's more like " *crickets* " and I'm internally panicking and trying to keep a straight face.  Other times if I don't get adequate sleep I become stupid and either stay silent because I cannot think of words to fit my thoughts, or my thoughts are totally random and I have absolute no control.  Like random camp songs that pop up in my head, or an old flame.

So no, I don't get tired.  It's just who and how I am.

Edited by ignasia

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On 9/24/2019 at 12:46 PM, ignasia said:

I write long ass posts because it's something I developed over time.

Though it probably stems from my personality.  I've always been either super silent or a talker.  Apparently I had a lot to say as a kid, and would always have comments and questions about everything.  Growing up I was called the professor (that was meant to be friendly), and the walking encyclopedia (that was not, but new class I joined in as a first year when pretty much everyone else had known one another for 7+ years).  I would always have my hand raised in class in discussion, and would always engage in roundtables and debate.  I would write stories quite a lot growing up, or come up with story ideas all the time (or art...I used to draw and paint a LOT, though pretty much nil these days).

I guess it's just a natural progression.  Though you'd probably laugh how often I stay silent and for how long.  Not always because I can't think of something to say.  These days it's more because I'm not sure if something should be said or if what I'm going to say is the right thing to say, though I still do draw blanks, usually around certain types of women.  The response has nothing to do with looks, and so far I cannot pin down a personality quirk that triggers it, but it's always the same specific women I go "blaaaa...blue good colour, me dumb now, try make fire, not know how, brain act funny, think stuff difficult...where me mallet, what mallet for..."...well, it's more like " *crickets* " and I'm internally panicking and trying to keep a straight face.  Other times if I don't get adequate sleep I become stupid and either stay silent because I cannot think of words to fit my thoughts, or my thoughts are totally random and I have absolute no control.  Like random camp songs that pop up in my head, or an old flame.

So no, I don't get tired.  It's just who and how I am.

Cool, you sound like a clear introvert like me, your prob an ISFP or INTP, I suspect the former, if your a fan or heard of Myers-Briggs, I'm really into it myself.

https://www.personalitypage.com/html/ISFP.html

https://www.personalitypage.com/html/INTP.html

The titles don't actually mean you do that thing, its more metaphorical and representational, its all about the type and traits more and the functions when you get to that point lol.

Edited by muddy120

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Posted (edited)

https://gematsu.com/2019/10/famitsu-sales-9-23-19-9-29-19

Quote

Famitsu-Sales_10-02-19.jpg

Famitsu has published its estimated physical game software and hardware sales data for Japan for the week of September 23, 2019 to September 29, 2019.

Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age – Definitive Edition for Switch was the top selling title of the week, moving 303,204 retail units in three days. To compare, the vanilla version of Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age sold 1,148,888 retail copies on 3DS and 950,315 retail copies on PlayStation 4 during its first two days of release.

Also new this week, Bandai Namco's Souls-esque action RPG Code Vein for PlayStation 4 opened at 60,843 retail sales, Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout for PlayStation 4 at 53,428 sales and Switch at 22,538 sales for an total of 76,966 copies, Ys IX: Monstrum Nox for PlayStation 4 at 45,378 sales, and FIFA 20 for PlayStation 4 at 43,751 sales.

On the hardware side, the launch of Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age – Definitive Edition pushed Switch family sales to an impressive 196,489 units, while the PlayStation 4 family sold 24,658 units and the 3DS family sold 2,384 units.

Get the full sales charts below.

Software Sales (followed by lifetime sales)

  1. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age – Definitive Edition (Limited Edition Included) (Square Enix, 09/27/19) – 303,204 (New)
  2. [PS4] Code Vein (Bandai Namco, 09/27/19) – 60,843 (New)
  3. [PS4] Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout (Koei Tecmo, 09/26/19) – 53,428 (New)
  4. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening (Nintendo, 09/20/19) – 45,775 (187,150)
  5. [PS4] Ys IX: Monstrum Nox (Falcom, 09/26/19) – 45,378 (New)
  6. [PS4] FIFA 20 (Electronic Arts, 09/27/19) – 43,751 (New)
  7. [PS4] World of War Z (H2 Interactive, 09/26/19) – 27,872 (New)
  8. [PS4] Monster Hunter World: Iceborne Master Edition (Capcom, 09/06/19) – 26,324 (346,239)
  9. [NSW] Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout (Koei Tecmo, 09/26/19) – 25,538 (New)
  10. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo, 06/28/19) – 14,731 (644,445)

Numbers 11 to 30 will be published on October 3.

Hardware Sales (followed by lifetime sales)

  1. Switch – 115,732 (9,149,477)
  2. Switch Lite – 80,757 (258,693)
  3. PlayStation 4 – 15,034 (7,134,310)
  4. PlayStation 4 Pro – 9,624 (1,289,692)
  5. New 2DS LL (including 2DS) – 2,181 (1,665,281)
  6. New 3DS LL – 203 (5,884,406)
  7. Xbox One X – 83 (16,990)
  8. Xbox One S – 75 (91,164)
  9. PS Vita – 39 (5,862,595)
Edited by Dakhil

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Posted (edited)

I wonder if it will have 500k by week's end, 600k by 2weeks out, 650k by 3 weeks, 700k by 1st month, 900k~1m by 6 months out in Japan.  1.1~1.2 by a year, and 1.1x~1.2x lifetime Switch in Japan.  More likely the real number will be 5~700k lifetime in Japan given 300k right now, unless something happens where it's one of the few long-term selling games over time.

Looking at those Zelda numbers and Ys numbers though...wow, so low even for those series. I expected 60+k at least, 110k more likely for Ys, 150k for Zelda.  Second week though, but still low.

I wonder if this is proof Japan's social stigma is actually killing their non-gambling entertainment industries.

====

I'm guessing my actual numbers are way too high.  1.5~2.5m for Japan was quite a bit off. 500~700k more realistic, I'm hoping it breaks 1m though.  I am rather shocked at the number of Switch players not interested.

US will probably be closer to 300~500k

EU could be anywhere from 200~700k depending...it's a hard continent to predict, but UK sales are slumping these days (and it doesn't help most of the UK reviews are positively nasty and negative about everything...they just want all the same bullshit they've been fed but complain about being the same anyway, and when provided with something different, sneer instead of embrace).  France is the only predictable nation for Europe.

Edited by ignasia

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I wonder if it will have 500k by week's end, 600k by 2weeks out, 650k by 3 weeks, 700k by 1st month, 900k~1m by 6 months out in Japan.  1.1~1.2 by a year, and 1.1x~1.2x lifetime Switch in Japan.  More likely the real number will be 700k lifetime in Japan given 300k right now, unless something happens where it's one of the few long-term selling games over time.

Looking at those Zelda numbers and Ys numbers though...wow, so low even for those series. I expected 60+k at least, 110k more likely for Ys, 150k for Zelda.  Second week though, but still low.

I wonder if this is proof Japan's social stigma is actually killing their non-gambling entertainment industries.

It's a game that came out 2 years ago on 2 different systems there. Looking at what's added, I wouldn't pay for a 3rd version either. It's like the mobile ports. Squeenix popped them out here. I ain't buying inferior versions of what I already have.

 

Heck, the only reason I got it again is 2D. If you look outside hardcore DQ fandom TONS of people aren't getting this a 2nd time.

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