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UK first week sales - DQ Heroes places 18th


Mettool
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Dragon Quest Heroes placed 18th in sales in the UK for the week ending October 17th, trailing behind a fair number of games that have been out for a while.

 

http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2015/10/19/uk-sales-chart-tales-zestiria-dragon-quest-heroes-disgaea-5-cant-crack-top-7/

 

Granted, this only accounts for roughly two days. What do you think? Time to worry?

Edited by Mettool
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Well, it's Mussou, and about 2/3rds of the people who have been constantly talking about DQ demand, had made it clear they weren't interested in DQHeroes, but I say hold off and wait.  I think the US numbers will be higher.  Shame they don't tell us actual numbers.

 

Economics, despite all the goodwill and happy happy thoughts, have been down, not up.  The christmas season is around the corner, and the PS4 is overdue, by a full year, for a price drop (along with the Wii U, which should be about 200 by this time last year).

 

I think it'll move over time, by word of mouth, but for now, people are holding off for the Holiday season, seeing where to spend their money.

 

There's also SE's outrageous price for the game.

 

 

It's a 49.99 game, always was, being sold for 59.99, and a 69.99 collector's edition being sold for 99.99 or 119.99 (Gamestop).  They'd have likely moved 3~4x more copies if the game was priced right, but they're slowly learning.  I wonder what the actual sales figures are, and I wonder what their projections really are.

 

In the end, I think it'll still sell 200~300k copies in Europe as a whole, and the same in the US.  The rest of the Americas being another 20~50k, and the rest of the world being somewhere in the 30~50k ballpark.

 

There's also the disgrace of not being able to even access downloads without a Playstation Plus membership (another bit of proof for my theory that Sony is 100% the reason behind this push, and is ponying up the money for the localization and promotions).

 

 

I have a feeling the bulk of sales will be in France and Germany this time around, unlike previous releases (and much like DQSwords), and it'll end up being a near 25~30% for each of the three main European countries of France, Germany, and the UK, the rest spread amongst the others.

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Square Enix has canceled all forthcoming Dragon Quest projects for the west accordingly.

 

I don't know.  It all depends on their projections, and time periods per each projection.

 

Mussou games do notoriously bad in the US and more so in Europe.  By that I mean the US alone typically sells 2~3x what Europe does, but the US does about 1/3 to 1/4 of what Japan sells.

 

So one has to wonder how realistic their expectations are.  Even Hyrule Warriors, while doing well for a Mussou, was rather piss poor for a Zelda game.

 

 

I'd wager their total requirements are what I had stated earlier, somewhere between 120~150k US sales, for a guaranteed future of DQ.  However I think that's accounting for overall sales, maybe 3 month out, when games have sold about 95% of their full sales.  Not always that way.  Europe's are likely much lower, probably somewhere closer to the 60~75k marker.

 

I think though, given the impression it's recieved by those who have played it at PAX, it WILL see, eventually, higher overall UK sales.

 

There's also the fact this is a PS4 exclusive internationally.  Why?  Again, Sony, because they'd easily get 2x the sales numbers, maybe as much as 5x with a dual release.  If they also rebuilt the engine for the X360 and XBone, and released on those two in the US?  I'd expect nearly 10x the sales, and it might have been the first million sales Mussou game in the US, by the end of Week 1.

 

It's also only 3 days out, and we're getting UK numbers only.   Even then, not actual numbers.  So let's sit and wait a bit.  I'm thinking it will be more than satisfactory, but I do have to admit...I could be wrong about this being a breakout hit.  I was hoping for a stronger showing.  I wonder if that's 5, 10, 15, or 20k in sales?

The US just recently got a PS4 Price drop exactly 10 days ago, so the system is now $350 instead of $400 now.

 

That's good to know.  Maybe that'll help with sales in the US.

Edited by ignasia7
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Sorry Ignasia. My original post was a joke on how quick SE is to jump the gun on that sort of thing.

 

Heh, lol, oh I know, I just...it's how I am.  It's not that it didn't pass over my head, it's more that my mind is reeling with a lot of thoughts concerning this whole situation with DQH and the future of DQ.

 

I think we'll be fine, but damn me it's all up in the air right now.  Both auxilirating and tense.  Anxiety and hope rolled into one package!

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Sorry Ignasia. My original post was a joke on how quick SE is to jump the gun on that sort of thing.

 

Heh, lol, oh I know, I just...it's how I am.  It's not that it didn't pass over my head, it's more that my mind is reeling with a lot of thoughts concerning this whole situation with DQH and the future of DQ.

 

I think we'll be fine, but damn me it's all up in the air right now.  Both auxilirating and tense.  Anxiety and hope rolled into one package!

 

 

Trust me, I feel pretty much exactly the same way.

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Sorry Ignasia. My original post was a joke on how quick SE is to jump the gun on that sort of thing.

Heh, lol, oh I know, I just...it's how I am. It's not that it didn't pass over my head, it's more that my mind is reeling with a lot of thoughts concerning this whole situation with DQH and the future of DQ.

 

I think we'll be fine, but damn me it's all up in the air right now. Both auxilirating and tense. Anxiety and hope rolled into one package!

Auxiliary what? I never heard that used as a verb.
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Oops...exhilirating =p

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Haha!

 

Man I hope this game does well. I want that sequel!

 

SE seems to be promoting the game at least. They've been active with the fan base at any rate. I think just charting with only two days of sales isn't bad for a niche franchise.

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Koei Tecmo pretty much footed the bill for localisation, right? If that's the case, we'll probably see the sequel too since Square won't really have to pay for it.

 

No, their name would be all over it, reminding us that they played a direct part in the localization process.

 

KT doesn't have anywhere close to the name brand recognition that SE does, especially outside of Japan, so they would look for any inroad to making themselves look like they were party to this.  They haven't done anything, however a ton of misguided people have simply stated they have, and since then the rumour has turned into its own animal, where people really do believe KT had to have something to do with this, as somehow SE never would.

 

There are only two actual culprits for this whole affair.  SE and Sony.

 

Arguments for Sony:

 

1) Sony is far too large and popular to care about needing their name all over the project.  They could easily bankroll the project as a favour.

 

2) Sony has the best market penetration, but some more PS4 sales would help, as DQ fans are less likely to buy Bloodborne, and might not be as keen on Tales, or might want Tales or Bloodborne, but haven't justified the PS4 as a purchase yet, because they want a game from their favourite series on the system...DQ.

 

3) There are Musou fans still out there, even in the US, and if they can create a game that addresses many of the problems with the genre, it's possible to help pushnumber 2, and spread sales to Musou fans who did not buy a WiiU, but want to see more of the same style of game on the PS4 before switching over.

 

4) Given the number of major setups done, and the amount of review critics, DQH has had a very widespread campaign, obviously spending far more than SE has been willing to spend in a very long time for any game that isn't a mainline FF or any KH release, let alone DQ.  Granted this could be due to the new management, and some changes in SE leading to the Website, Facebook, and smarter and cheaper promotional outlets for DQH, but it makes more sense if an outside source ponied up the money to help build the infrastructure.

 

5) Sony and SE created the special Liquid Metal Slime PS4 just for the original DQH.  It stands to reason that Sony wants DQ now associated with the PS4, supporting point 5.

 

6) SE's message has been, since e3 '15, that DQH is the defacto game fans have asked for (lies), and have, to fans, discussed DQH, leading into the release, as being the determining factor for other DQ releases.  This falls in line more with Sony's need to push DQH on fans who haven't yet bought a PS4, more so than it does for SE to promote DQH alone.

 

7) REPRISED:  DQH2 has the shortest window between release annoucement of the next game, and the release of the current game.  I mistakenly mixed up the DQH 1 international announcement, with the DQH2 announcement date.  However, DQH2 was announced on April first, but released February 26, 1 month 3 days difference.  General new game release announcements, in DQ at least, are something like 6 months later, if not more.  So that suggests a lot of early money is being dumped into this, that neither SE would ordinarily plug, and Koei Tecmo certainly wouldn't have.

 

Arguments for SE alone:

 

1) SE has seen FF go up and down worldwide.  They know full well that had FF13 been only a PS3 release, it would not have justified the production costs.  FF14 was also a massive failure, and they intentionally killed FF11 just FOR FF14's original build, by pushing players to FF14, and making everyone believe they were going to stop supporting 11.  The rebuild of 14 has cost them dearly, as they've barely managed to scrounge 1/6th the install base of what remains of FF11 and FF14, of what was the installbase of FF11, prior to FF14's original beta test, and the forced exodus from FF11.

 

SE has also had problems with development costs of recent FF games, as FF Versus was melded into the starting project of FF15, and Versus was already created 3x over, using 3 separate engines, PRIOR to FF15 even being made.  The game is the longest running production in SE's history.

 

SE's actual costs for Tomb Raider was roughly 80m in total, including marketing costs.  They never divulged the breakdown of the 80m, but it suggests their numbers of 3.4, 5, and 6m units sold, has nothing to do with development recouping and profits.  It means the game was paying for Fabula Nova Crystalis and FF14's production costs.  That it took until they sold over 8m units total, before Tomb Raider profited, indicates it was continuing to pay for these two projects to continue.  This means SE's method of determining costs and profit is insane.  They need some resurgence in other venues, even if it means a retry with DQ.

 

Dragon Quest, in Japan, is the only self-sufficient series in their arsenal.  Not even Kingdom Hearts pays for itself nearly as well as Dragon Quest does.  Each Dragon Quest spinoff, in general, sells about twice what a KH or FF spinoff sells.  They all have smaller teams, generall smaller production periods, and probably cost less to make in development.  That the current build is using the cheapest, most used, most efficient, and easiest to learn engine in the gaming industry, is just proof in concept of how smart the approach to DQ development really is.  That they keep rebuilding, tweaking, and reworking the same game engines, is another cog in the wheel that is the Golden Goose of SE...Dragon Quest.  DQ's 6 SFC, 3 SFC, 7 PSX, 4 PSX, 5 PS2, 4/5/6 DS, 7 3DS, and the mobile releases of 3~7 all run off the same original engine that's been constantly tweaked and updated.  I should note that DQ's 1~4 NES, and 5 SFC all used the same Chunsoft engine, also tweaked.

 

So SE now needs to rebuild what it can of DQ out west, as they need a constant flow of money.  DQ localizations are nowhere near as expensive as they make them out to be.  Seriously, it's a joke how they portray it, and they know it.  DQ has a smaller, but still very loyal fanbase.  So they want to regrow it.

 

2) The creation of the website, facebook page, the pushing of Healix as a new mascot, the twitter account, and the youtube account, and all being general to DQ, rather than specific, are all indicative of an attempt of SE to rebuild DQ as a series, not just DQH, outside of Japan.

 

3) The Gamestop promotion was a 1-day farce that amounted to nothing.  More indicative of SE than Sony.  SE tends to lack in proper spending and funding when it comes to assuring a cardboard cutout or window sticker is used properly.  Then again, US game and electronic retailers are notorious for overcharging for floor advertising space, especially Gamestop, which actually rents out their stores, at exhorbitant rates.  There's a lot of data on the corrupt practices of Gamestop, a LOT, and just how much they charge, and how often they skimp out on active promoting if they haven't been given enough money.  Hell, they even hold game promotion in ransom if there are competing games.  Sony handling this, woud've been more likely to assure that cardboard poster was at the front door.

 

4) The lack of stock in retail brick and mortar stores, and the abundant availability of online stores, and that SE basically assured people would be more prone to buying it directly from SE, is indicative this is SE handling this whole scenario.  Sony would assure copies in at least some or most Gamestops around the country, or even Bestbuy and other smaller game retailers.

 

5) DQH's promotion having used lies about the demand, and keeping fans in line by basically telling them (us), that to assure DQ's future in NA/EU, we must buy this game.  This is also backlash against the various people who keep saying how they have a PS3, can't afford/justify a PS4 yet, but they want DQH.  It also counters fans who demand any other DQ, as it allows other fans who fear reprisal, to lambast, attack, and attempt to keep in line those who aren't willing to buy DQH to support the series (frankly this behaviour disgusts me more than the entitlement crap and the "SE hates us because we're not Japanese" crap).  This will help push DQH in general, as fans who are demanding other games may not stop demanding them, but might start seeing DQH as the only guarantor of their more desired games.  It also helps establish a stronger showing for a spinoff outside of Japan, which helps bring in new blood and potentially new DQ customers, so they can build off DQH's success to decent success, to help bolster other DQ releases.

 

 

====

 

My take?

 

Sony is bankrolling DQH.  No doubt in my mind.  The behaviour of SE with announcing the second DQH so soon, and almost immediately after (1 month and 3 days) DQH is released is absolute proof positive to me.  Sony needs traction for the PS4...in Japan.  System sales are higher than any other, but they're not that dominant, in Japan, compared to the WiiU,  at least nothing close to the discrepancy of WiiU to PS4 in the US versus Japan.  A lot of this has to do with how much time Japanese kids are in school, and men, especially young men, are at work.  Even after work, many jobs and many workplaces require continued time spent with those in their work environment.  This has led to a more mobile society.  So Japan has adopted mobile gaming, and handheld gaming, and standard home consoles have suffered as a result.  So the fear is real that home consoles are dieing in the country that saved the industry, then built it into a behemoth.

 

However, I see SE as having full control over spending, and full control over every detail.  They want DQ to see a renewed life in the US especially, and the EU secondly.  For RPG sales in general, theUS is more favourable to JRPG's than the EU, often doubling and trippling the sales in the EU.  The exception being DQ.  Literally, THE exception, as a series.  Other than DQ, there are a few games here and there that do about equal to better in the EU, but in general, the US remains the defacto JRPG haven in the West.  This is probably due to the market penetration of Nintendo and Sony in the US versus the EU, during the critical 90's period, creating a larger base of hardcore JRPG fans.

 

The trade being SE takes the risk of going PS4 only, so that Sony can assure more PS4 sales from hungry DQ fans desperate for something.

 

SE has decided to just focus on DQH for now, using it as a determinant for other DQ releases, given the company as a whole isn't quite sure on the future of the series.  They also want it to grow, and their approach to fan responses, since the announcement, has been pretty clear: buy or DQ dies...permanently this time.  It's quite an ultimatum, but it will spur on hesitant core fans to add their sales to Musou curiosos, and those who might read the reviews and decide...sure it's Musou, but it seems like a step in the right direction, so I'll try it!  Hell, it also helps push fans to promote the game ourselves.  Get our friends/family to buy or try it.

Edited by ignasia7
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Wow. I'm super impressed by this really in depth look at the whole thing. Some things I definitely would not have thought of, especially the re-branding of the series in the west by way of DQ Heroes. I fall into argument #2 for Sony. I had no interest in any of the other titles, but Dragon Quest made me buy the system. I'm also interested in a lot of other SE titles currently on the system, and those yet to come. I really would not mind if Dragon Quest goes PS only for the foreseeable future if that means we'll get more titles.

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Haha!

 

Man I hope this game does well. I want that sequel!

 

SE seems to be promoting the game at least. They've been active with the fan base at any rate. I think just charting with only two days of sales isn't bad for a niche franchise.

 

So do I buddy, so do I.

 

I'm happy with how they're promoting it.  It lets each dollar really stretch as far as possible, while allowing for a LOT of media, and publication attention, which hopefully will net it some good sales over time.

 

 

Wow. I'm super impressed by this really in depth look at the whole thing. Some things I definitely would not have thought of, especially the re-branding of the series in the west by way of DQ Heroes. I fall into argument #2 for Sony. I had no interest in any of the other titles, but Dragon Quest made me buy the system. I'm also interested in a lot of other SE titles currently on the system, and those yet to come. I really would not mind if Dragon Quest goes PS only for the foreseeable future if that means we'll get more titles.

 

Yeah, there are a number of people here who now own a PS4 because of DQH.

 

I want a PS4 for other reasons, but DQH is a worthy purchase.

Edited by ignasia7
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Honestly, I've had friends who have never played a Dragon Quest game or were very unlikely to play RPGs to begin with pick up on Heroes. A good number of people are getting into Dragon Quest thanks to this game and I think we're going to be okay. And I think the CE almost sold through.

 

Probably not millions of units, no. But I certainly expect average to above-average. 500-600k by the Holidays at the very least.

Edited by Mettool
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Square Enix has canceled all forthcoming Dragon Quest projects for the west accordingly.

 

Now, now!

 

They had already done that.

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Honestly, I've had friends who have never played a Dragon Quest game or were very unlikely to play RPGs to begin with pick up on Heroes. A good number of people are getting into Dragon Quest thanks to this game and I think we're going to be okay. And I think the CE almost sold through.

 

Probably not millions of units, no. But I certainly expect average to above-average. 500-600k by the Holidays at the very least.

 

I really hope your numbers are right, if by them, you mean just the US, since those are close to my numbers for the world (400~600k).  I think you're right though, and awesome that your friends are getting into DQ now, or at least being exposed  :).

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Square Enix has canceled all forthcoming Dragon Quest projects for the west accordingly.

 

Now, now!

 

They had already done that.

 

 

Is it bad I learned to read Japanese just to keep up with it?

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Oooh 18th, not bad.

 

Being below games like Rugby world cup and NBA seems a bit worrying though since they're not very good. But then again, they are multiplatform games, and heaps of people buy sports games, so it could be a good thing.

 

Being above mario maker and disney infinity also seems to be a nice achievement.

 

I wish we had the numbers. If we can get over a million sold westward, or close to it, I'll be so happy.

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Tales of Zestiria (8th), a jrpg, outsold DQ Heroes (18th). Both were released here on the same day. Will SQEX still think there's no market for jrpgs in the West after this?

 

 

@Ignasia7 Heroes 2 was announced prior the release of Heroes 1? I thought Heroes 2 was announced on the first days of April while Heroes 1 was released in late February.

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Tales of Zestiria (8th), a jrpg, outsold DQ Heroes (18th). Both were released here on the same day. Will SQEX still think there's no market for jrpgs in the West after this?

 

 

@Ignasia7 Heroes 2 was announced prior the release of Heroes 1? I thought Heroes 2 was announced on the first days of April while Heroes 1 was released in late February.

 

OOOOH, I think I know what I did there.

 

DQHeroes US/EU announcement was the 25th of February, and the Japanese release was the 26th.  I confused that with the DQH2 announcement.  Ok, I have to erase that part of my reasoning.  Thanks for the correction Awesome.

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Tales of Zestiria (8th), a jrpg, outsold DQ Heroes (18th). Both were released here on the same day. Will SQEX still think there's no market for jrpgs in the West after this?

 

 

@Ignasia7 Heroes 2 was announced prior the release of Heroes 1? I thought Heroes 2 was announced on the first days of April while Heroes 1 was released in late February.

 

OOOOH, I think I know what I did there.

 

DQHeroes US/EU announcement was the 25th of February, and the Japanese release was the 26th.  I confused that with the DQH2 announcement.  Ok, I have to erase that part of my reasoning.  Thanks for the correction Awesome.

 

 

Yeah, I remember Square Enix announcing DQ Heroes 2 on April Fool's day. I legitimately thought it was a joke at first, then realized that Japanese companies really don't do the April Fool's day thing.

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Tales of Zestiria (8th), a jrpg, outsold DQ Heroes (18th). Both were released here on the same day. Will SQEX still think there's no market for jrpgs in the West after this?

 

 

@Ignasia7 Heroes 2 was announced prior the release of Heroes 1? I thought Heroes 2 was announced on the first days of April while Heroes 1 was released in late February.

 

OOOOH, I think I know what I did there.

 

DQHeroes US/EU announcement was the 25th of February, and the Japanese release was the 26th.  I confused that with the DQH2 announcement.  Ok, I have to erase that part of my reasoning.  Thanks for the correction Awesome.

 

 

Yeah, I remember Square Enix announcing DQ Heroes 2 on April Fool's day. I legitimately thought it was a joke at first, then realized that Japanese companies really don't do the April Fool's day thing.

 

 

Yeah...doesn't change much though.

 

I reprised with the following:

 

7) REPRISED:  DQH2 has the shortest window between release annoucement of the next game, and the release of the current game.  I mistakenly mixed up the DQH 1 international announcement, with the DQH2 announcement date.  However, DQH2 was announced on April first, but released February 26, 1 month 3 days difference.  General new game release announcements, in DQ at least, are something like 6 months later, if not more.  So that suggests a lot of early money is being dumped into this, that neither SE would ordinarily plug, and Koei Tecmo certainly wouldn't have.

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